The Political Economy of Direct Legislation: An Analysis of its Impact on Policy Outcomes and the Scope for Reform

Ref. 7552

General description

Period

1980 - 2001(time-series cross-sectional panel) 1999, 2000 - 2002 (SHP) 2000 (PISA) 1998 - 2003 (index of direct democracy)

Geographical Area

-

Additional Geographical Information​

Switzerland (USA and other countries for comparison)

Abstract

This project aims at gaining a deeper insight and a more profound understanding of the functioning and the impact of direct democratic institutions such as referenda and initiatives on policy outcomes. This goal is to be achieved in three steps: First, the impact of referenda and initiatives on the cantonal and local fiscal policy shall be investigated both with respect to the aggregate level as well as to the two levels separately. Second, the influence of direct legislative rights on social indicators like personal and regional income distribution shall be analysed in depth. Third, systematic comparisons shall be carried out with results obtained for various other countries in order to gain a more profound insight into the impact of direct democratic popular rights. Up to now, the first question has been investigated profoundly which is reflected by the numerous articles published by project members in this area (see publication list). Concerning question two, we have also analyzed the redistributive issue and the impact of direct democracy on cantonal crime rates. In addition, we have started to explore its effect on the quality of public education as well as on people's happiness.

Results

Most of the results are related to cantonal and local public revenue, spending and debt. - lower level of public spending in cantons with fiscal referenda; this result is corroborated for the local level using data on 132 big Swiss cities (1990) - substitutive relation between initiative and referendum: in canton where it is difficult to have a fiscal referendum, the initiative is used as a substitute in order to restrict public spending - at the cantonal level, both fiscal referendum and initiative have a significantly negative impact on public revenue, with the overall impact on public deficit being positive - at the local level, a significantly negative impact on both public debt and revenue can be observed (which is not the case for the cantonal level) - the restrictive influence of the fiscal referendum on public debt (in the communities) is stronger than that of any other institution related to the budget process (through formal, constitutional restrictions or a person responsible for the budget process) - at the local level, fiscal breaks (or other formal restrictions) are shown to have no impact on public spending or revenue on the local level (in contrast to the effects of fiscal referenda) - by contrast, on the cantonal level these institutions such as fiscal breaks have a significantly negative influence on public debt and public deficit - fiscal referenda restrict the centralisation process - defined as the shift of revenue and spending from the local level to the cantonal level: in cantons with fiscal referendum the 'central' level has a smaller share of total expenditure (composed of both the central and local levels) than in more representative cantons - the higher the level of direct democracy in a canton is, the closer its policy is to the voters' preferences and the less likely to imitate the (fiscal) policy of neighboring cantons (caused by political competition for votes) - direct-democratic decision-making causes a higher legitimacy of cantonal policies in the eyes of its citizens. As a result, tax morale is higher in more direct-democratic cantons and mutual trust between tax administration and citizens can be established - in direct-democratic cantons federal government grants are less demanded and a lower level of fiscal equalization transfers occurs With respect to social indicators, we have found the following: - pre-tax and post-tax distribution of income is more equal in cantons with higher levels of direct democracy - given the initial (in)equality, more redistribution occurs in more direct democratic cantons, which indicates that (less) financial resources are targeted more efficiently - direct democracy exhibits a limiting impact on police expenditure and on expenditure for the judicial systems, i.e. courts and administration - although less means are available for crime prevention and prosecution in more direct democratic cantons, the cantonal crime level is significantly lower for property crime and weakly higher for hate crime - direct democracy leads to a lower level of combined cantonal and local expenditure for public education - pupils' performance is significantly lower in more direct democratic cantons than in more representative ones - the happiness enhancing impact of direct democarcy was not corroborated using the Swiss Household Panel